Research

My recent research has focused on unconventional monetary policy (particularly forward guidance and large-scale asset purchases by the Fed) and the relationship between financial markets and the macroeconomy. Current versions of my working papers are provided below. If you're looking for reprints, presentation slides, or additional material for my published papers or other research-related information, click on the corresponding tab at right.

Working Papers

“The Labor Demand and Labor Supply Channels of Monetary Policy” (with Sebastian Graves and Christopher Huckfeldt)
(abstract) – (full paper) – (presentation at University of Illinois)

“The Macroeconomic Effects of the Federal Reserve’s Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policies,” forthcoming in the IMF Economic Review.
(abstract) – (full paper) – (presentation at UC San Diego) – (shorter presentation at Norges Bank/IMF conference)

“Speeches by the Fed Chair Are More Important than FOMC Announcements: An Improved High-Frequency Measure of U.S. Monetary Policy Shocks” (with Vishuddhi Jayawickrema)
(abstract) – (full paper) – (presentation at the NBER Summer Institute)

“A Macroeconomic Model of Equities and Real, Nominal, and Defaultable Debt.”
(abstract) – (full paper) – (presentation at Stanford Institute for Theoretical Economics) – (shorter presentation at Bank of Canada/FRB San Francisco conference, San Francisco)

Longer, working-paper version of “Measuring the Effect of the Zero Lower Bound on Medium- and Longer-Term Interest Rates” (with John Williams), The American Economic Review 104, October 2014, pp. 3154-3185. The working paper contains more simulation results from the model and additional discussion of some issues related to longer-term interest rates.
(abstract) – (published version) – (longer working paper version) – (nontechnical summary, VoxEU) – (presentation at UC Davis) – (shorter presentation at AEA Meetings, San Diego) – (Econbrowser 2/15/12) – (Reuters 2/14/12)

Longer, working-paper version of “Risk Aversion and the Labor Margin in Dynamic Equilibium Models,” The American Economic Review 102, June 2012, pp. 1663-1691. The working paper contains results for habits and early results for generalized recursive preferences.
(abstract) – (published version) – (longer working paper version)

Working-paper version of “The Bond Premium in a DSGE Model with Long-Run Real and Nominal Risks” (with Glenn Rudebusch), American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 4, January 2012, pp. 105-43. The working paper contains results for a generalized consol and a simpler preference specification that is closer to Woodford's textbook.
(abstract) – (working paper version)

“Higher-Order Perturbation Solutions to Dynamic, Discrete-Time Rational Expectations Models” (with Gary Anderson and Andrew Levin).
(abstract) – (full paper) – (Perturbation AIM code & examples)

“Optimal Time-Consistent Monetary Policy in the New Keynesian Model with Repeated Simultaneous Play” (with Gauti Eggertsson), working paper, 2008.
(abstract) – (full paper) – (NBER Summer Institute presentation) – (shorter presentation at SCE Meetings, Paris)

“Econometric Estimation when the ‘True’ Model Forecasts or Errors Are Observed,” working paper, 2006.
(abstract) – (full paper)

“Bayesian Optimal Policy in the Presence of Regime Change and Local Parameter Uncertainty,” working paper, 2006.
(abstract) – (full paper)