Published Papers

“The Macroeconomic Effects of the Federal Reserve’s Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policies,” forthcoming in the IMF Economic Review.
(abstract) – (full paper) – (presentation at UC San Diego) – (shorter presentation at Norges Bank/IMF conference)

“The Federal Funds Market, Pre- and Post-2008,” published in the Research Handbook of Financial Markets (Refet Gürkaynak and Jonathan Wrigth, eds.), 2023, 220-236.
(abstract) – (full paper) – (presentation at the Research Handbook of Financial Markets Conference)

“The Importance of Fed Chair Speeches as a Monetary Policy Tool,” published in The American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings 113, May 2023, 394-400.
(abstract) – (full paper) – (presentation at the AEA Meetings)

“A Reassessment of Monetary Policy Surprises and High-Frequency Identification;” (with Michael Bauer), published in NBER Macroeconomics Annual 37, 2023, 87-155.
(abstract) – (full paper) – (presentation at the NBER Macroeconomics Annual Conference) – (shorter presentation at the AEA Meetings)

“An Alternative Explanation for the ‘Fed Information Effect’” (with Michael Bauer), published in The American Economic Review 113, March 2023, 664-700. (Previous versions circulated uner the title, “The Fed’s Response to Economic News Explains the ‘Fed Information Effect’.”
(abstract) – (full paper) – (online appendix) – (presentation at Empirical Monetary Economics Conference)

“Measuring the Effects of Federal Reserve Forward Guidance and Asset Purchases on Financial Markets,” published in the Journal of Monetary Economics 118, March 2021, 32-53, winner of the JME 2022 Best Paper Prize.
(abstract) – (full paper) – (nontechnical summary, NBER Digest) – (presentation at Dallas Fed) – (shorter presentation at the Econometric Society World Congress) – (Business Insider, 5/22/17) – (spreadsheet containing set of monetary policy shocks estimated in the paper)

“Implications of Labor Market Frictions for Risk Aversion and Risk Premia,” published in American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 12, April 2020, 194-240.
(abstract) – (full paper) – (presentation at Bilkent University, Ankara)

“The Federal Reserve Is Not Very Constrained by the Lower Bound on Nominal Interest Rates,” published in Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Fall 2018, 555-572.
(abstract) – (full paper) – (presentation at Brookings Institution)

“Risk Aversion, Risk Premia, and the Labor Margin with Generalized Recursive Preferences,” published in Review of Economic Dynamics 28, April 2018, 290-321.
(abstract) – (full paper) – (presentation at Birkbeck College, London) – (shorter presentation at Macro-Finance Society Workshop, Ohio State)

“Measuring the Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy on Asset Prices,” in Albagli, Elias, Diego Saravia, and Michael Woodford (eds.), Series on Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies 24: Monetary Policy through Asset Markets, Lessons from Unconventional Measures and Implications for an Integrated World (Santiago, Chile: Banco Central de Chile, 2016), 105-130.
(abstract) – (full paper) – (NBER Working Paper version) – (presentation at Central Banking conference, Santiago, Chile)

“Monetary Policy Effectiveness in China: Evidence from a FAVAR Model,” (with John Fernald and Mark Spiegel), published in Journal of International Money and Finance 49, December 2014, 83-103.
(abstract) – (full paper)

“Measuring the Effect of the Zero Lower Bound on Medium- and Longer-Term Interest Rates” (with John Williams), published in The American Economic Review 104, October 2014, 3154-3185.
(abstract) – (full paper) – (summary in VoxEU) – (presentation at UC Davis) – (shorter presentation at AEA Meetings, San Diego) – (Econbrowser 2/15/12) – (Reuters 2/14/12)

“Measuring the Effect of the Zero Lower Bound on Yields and Exchange Rates in the U.K. and Germany,” (with John Williams), published in Journal of International Economics 92, April 2014, S2-S21 (lead article).
(abstract) – (full paper) – (presentation at Bank of England) – (shorter presentation at Hong Kong Monetary Authority conference)

“Risk Aversion and the Labor Margin in Dynamic Equilibium Models,” published in The American Economic Review 102, June 2012, 1663-1691.
(abstract) – (full paper) – (longer working paper version) – (UC Berkeley presentation) – (shorter presentation at SCE meetings, San Francisco)

“The Bond Premium in a DSGE Model with Long-Run Real and Nominal Risks” (with Glenn Rudebusch), published in American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 4, January 2012, 105-43.
(abstract) – (full paper) – (working paper version) – (Bank of Italy presentation) – (shorter presentation at AEA Meetings, Atlanta)

“Let’s Twist Again: A High-Frequency Event-Study Analysis of Operation Twist and Its Implications for QE2,” published in Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Spring 2011, 151-188.
(abstract) – (full paper) – (Stanford presentation) – (The Economist 4/2/11) – (Economist.com 3/18/11) – (New York Times 9/10/11) – (Boston Globe 9/21/11) – (Econbrowser 1/23/11) – (Dow Jones 4/25/11) – (CNBC 8/5/11) – (Fox Business 8/10/11) – (CNN 8/19/11) – (Wall Street Journal 9/15/11) – (WSJ Editorial 9/21/11) – (NPR 9/21/11) – (Econbrowser 9/23/11) – (FT Editorial 10/02/11)

“Convergence and Anchoring of Yield Curves in the Euro Area,” (with Michael Ehrmann, Marcel Fratzscher, and Refet Gürkaynak), published in Review of Economics and Statistics 93, February 2011, 350-364.
(abstract) – (full paper) – (Atlanta presentation)

“Does Inflation Targeting Anchor Long-Run Inflation Expectations?  Evidence from Long-Term Bond Yields in the U.S., U.K., and Sweden,” (with Refet Gürkaynak and Andrew Levin), published in Journal of the European Economic Association 8, December 2010, 1208-1242.
(abstract) – (full paper) – (presentation slides) – (Econbrowser 9/20/07) – (Bloomberg 8/11/06) – (Reuters 8/11/06)

“Examining the Bond Premium Puzzle with a DSGE Model,” (with Glenn Rudebusch), published in Journal of Monetary Economics 55, October 2008, 111-126.
(abstract) – (full paper) – (WFA presentation, Hawaii) – (computer code)

“Futures Prices as Risk-Adjusted Forecasts of Monetary Policy” (with Monika Piazzesi), published in Journal of Monetary Economics 55, May 2008, 677-691.
(abstract) – (full paper) – (New York Times 11/4/07) – (Econbrowser 10/31/06)

“Real Wage Cyclicality in the PSID”, published in Scottish Journal of Political Economy 54, November 2007, 617-647 (special issue on wage cyclicality).
(abstract) – (full paper)

“Macroeconomic Implications of Changes in the Term Premium,” (with Glenn Rudebusch and Brian Sack), published in Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Review 89, July/August 2007, 241-269.
(abstract) – (full paper) – (FRB St. Louis conference presentation) – (shorter presentation at AEA Meetings, Chicago) – (Econbrowser 11/13/06) – (Dow Jones 10/19/06)

“Market-Based Measures of Monetary Policy Expectations” (with Refet Gürkaynak and Brian Sack), published in Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 25, April 2007, 201-212.
(abstract) – (full paper)

“Inflation Targeting and the Anchoring of Inflation Expectations in the Western Hemisphere,” (with Refet Gürkaynak, Andrew Levin, and Andrew Marder), published in Frederic Mishkin and Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (eds.), Series on Central Banking, Analysis and Economic Policies X: Monetary Policy under Inflation Targeting (Santiago, Chile: Banco Central de Chile), 2007, 415-465.
(abstract) – (full paper) – (Bloomberg 4/3/07)

“The Bond Yield ‘Conundrum’ from a Macro-Finance Perspective,” (with Glenn Rudebusch and Tao Wu), published in Monetary and Economic Studies (Special Edition) 24, December 2006, 83-109.
(abstract) – (full paper) – (presentation slides) – (Econbrowser 12/20/06)

“Have Increases in Federal Reserve Transparency Improved Private Sector Interest Rate Forecasts?” published in Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 38, April 2006, 791-819.
(abstract) – (full paper)

“Optimal Nonlinear Policy:  Signal Extraction with a Non-Normal Prior,” published in Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 30, February 2006, 185-203.
(abstract) – (full paper)

“The Relative Price and Relative Productivity Channels for Aggregate Fluctuations,” published in Contributions to Macroeconomics 6, 2006, article 10.
(abstract) – (full paper)

“Do Actions Speak Louder Than Words?  The Response of Asset Prices to Monetary Policy Actions and Statements” (with Refet Gürkaynak and Brian Sack), published in International Journal of Central Banking 1, May 2005, 55-93 (premier issue).
(abstract) – (full paper) – (data appendix) – (Globe & Mail 5/20/05) – (CNN 5/19/05)

“The Sensitivity of Long-Term Interest Rates to Economic News: Evidence and Implications for Macroeconomic Models” (with Refet Gürkaynak and Brian Sack), published in The American Economic Review 95, March 2005, 425-436.
(abstract) – (full paper) – (Econbrowser 7/12/07) – (Forbes 11/22/05) – (Reuters 2/22/05) – (Financial Times 11/20/03)

“Do Federal Reserve Policy Surprises Reveal Superior Information About the Economy?” (with Jon Faust and Jonathan Wright), published in Contributions to Macroeconomics 4, 2004, article 10, Berkeley Electronic Press.
(abstract) – (full paper) – (New York Times 8/18/02)

“Identifying VARs Based on High-Frequency Futures Data” (with Jon Faust and Jonathan Wright), published in Journal of Monetary Economics 51, September 2004, 1107-1131.
(abstract) – (full paper)

“Measuring the Cyclicality of Real Wages: How Important is the Firm's Point of View?” published in Review of Economics and Statistics 86, February 2004, 362-377.
(abstract) – (full paper)

“Signal Extraction and Non-Certainty-Equivalence in Optimal Monetary Policy Rules,” published in Macroeconomic Dynamics 8, January 2004, 27-50.
(abstract) – (full paper)

“Identifying the Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on Exchange Rates Using High-Frequency Data” (with Jon Faust, John Rogers, and Jonathan Wright), published in Journal of the European Economic Association 1, September 2003, 1031-1057.
(abstract) – (full paper)

“NAIRU Uncertainty and Nonlinear Policy Rules” (with Laurence Meyer and Volker Wieland), published in The American Economic Review 91, May 2001, 226-231.
(abstract) – (full paper)

“Out-of-Ecliptic Tests of the Inverse Correlation Between Solar Wind Speed and Coronal Expansion Factor” (with Neil Sheeley and Yi-Ming Wang), published in Journal of Geophysical Research 96, August 1, 1991, 13,861-13,868.
(full paper)

“MPTP and MPTP Analogs Induced Cell Death in Cultured Rat Hepatocytes Involving the Formation of Pyridinium Metabolites” (with Yogendra Singh, Edward Sokolski, R. Krishnan Kutty, and Gopal Krishna), published in Toxicology and Applied Pharmacology 96, 1988, 347-359.
(full paper)