Research Papers by TopicEmpirical Monetary Economics and Macro-Finance “The Labor Demand and Labor Supply Channels of Monetary Policy” (with
Sebastian Graves and Christopher Huckfeldt) “The Macroeconomic Effects of the Federal Reserve’s Conventional and Unconventional Monetary
Policies,” forthcoming in the IMF Economic Review. “Speeches by the Fed Chair Are More Important than FOMC Announcements: An Improved High-Frequency Measure
of U.S. Monetary Policy Shocks” (with Vishuddhi Jayawickrema) “The Federal Funds Market, Pre- and Post-2008,” published in the Research Handbook of Financial
Markets (Refet Gürkaynak and Jonathan Wrigth, eds.), 2023, 220-236. “The Importance of Fed Chair Speeches as a Monetary Policy Tool,” published in The American
Economic Review Papers and Proceedings 113, May 2023, 394-400. “A Reassessment of Monetary Policy Surprises and High-Frequency Identification;” (with Michael
Bauer), published in NBER Macroeconomics Annual 37, 2023, 87-155. “An Alternative Explanation for the ‘Fed Information Effect’” (with Michael Bauer),
published in The American Economic Review 113, March 2023, 664-700. (Previous versions circulated
uner the title, “The Fed’s Response to Economic News Explains the ‘Fed Information
Effect’.” “Measuring the Effects of Federal Reserve Forward Guidance and Asset Purchases on Financial
Markets,” published in the Journal of Monetary Economics 118, March 2021, 32–53, winner of
the JME 2022 Best Paper Prize. “The Federal Reserve Is Not Very Constrained by the Lower Bound on Nominal Interest Rates,” published in
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Fall 2018, 555–572. “Measuring the Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy on Asset Prices,” in Albagli, Elias, Diego
Saravia, and Michael Woodford (eds.), Series on Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies 24: Monetary
Policy through Asset Markets, Lessons from Unconventional Measures and Implications for an Integrated World
(Santiago, Chile: Banco Central de Chile, 2016), 105--130. “Measuring the Effect of the Zero Lower Bound on Medium- and Longer-Term Interest Rates” (with John
Williams), published in The American Economic Review 104, October 2014, pp. 3154-3185. “Measuring the Effect of the Zero Lower Bound on Yields and Exchange Rates in the U.K. and Germany,” (with
John Williams), published in Journal of International Economics 92, April 2014, pp. S2-S21 (lead article). “Let’s Twist Again: A High-Frequency Event-Study Analysis of Operation Twist and Its Implications
for QE2,” published in Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Spring 2011, pp. 151-188. “The Sensitivity of Long-Term Interest Rates to Economic News: Evidence and Implications for Macroeconomic
Models” (with Refet Gürkaynak and Brian Sack), published in The American Economic Review 95,
March 2005, pp. 425-436. “Do Actions Speak Louder Than Words? The Response of Asset Prices to Monetary Policy Actions and
Statements” (with Refet Gürkaynak and Brian Sack), published in International Journal of Central
Banking 1, May 2005, pp. 55-93 (premier issue). “Futures Prices as Risk-Adjusted Forecasts of Monetary Policy” (with Monika Piazzesi), published
in Journal of Monetary Economics 55, May 2008, pp. 677-691. “Market-Based Measures of Monetary Policy Expectations” (with Refet Gürkaynak and Brian Sack),
published in Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 25, April 2007, pp. 201-212. “Does Inflation Targeting Anchor Long-Run Inflation Expectations? Evidence from Long-Term Bond
Yields in the U.S., U.K., and Sweden,” (with Refet Gürkaynak and Andrew Levin), published
in Journal of the European Economic Association 8, December 2010, pp. 1208-1242. “Inflation Targeting and the Anchoring of Inflation Expectations in the Western Hemisphere,” (with
Refet Gürkaynak, Andrew Levin, and Andrew Marder), published in Frederic Mishkin and Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel
(eds.), Series on Central Banking, Analysis and Economic Policies X: Monetary Policy under Inflation
Targeting (Santiago, Chile: Banco Central de Chile), 2007, pp. 415-465. “Convergence and Anchoring of Yield Curves in the Euro Area,” (with Michael Ehrmann, Marcel
Fratzscher, and Refet Gürkaynak), published in Review of Economics and Statistics 93, February 2011,
pp. 350-364. “Macroeconomic Implications of Changes in the Term Premium,” (with Glenn Rudebusch and Brian Sack),
published in Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Review 89, July/August 2007, pp. 241-269. “The Bond Yield ‘Conundrum’ from a Macro-Finance Perspective,” (with Glenn Rudebusch and
Tao Wu), published in Monetary and Economic Studies (Special Edition) 24, December 2006, pp. 83-109. “Have Increases in Federal Reserve Transparency Improved Private Sector Interest Rate Forecasts?”
published in Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 38, April 2006, pp. 791-819. “Do Federal Reserve Policy Surprises Reveal Superior Information About the Economy?” (with Jon Faust
and Jonathan Wright), published in Contributions to Macroeconomics 4, 2004, article 10, Berkeley
Electronic Press. “Econometric Estimation when the ‘True’ Model Forecasts or Errors Are Observed,” working
paper, 2006. “Operation Twist and the Effect of Large-Scale Asset Purchases,” published as Federal Reserve
Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 20011-13. “Convergence of Long-Term Bond Yields in the Euro Area,” published as Federal Reserve Bank of San
Francisco Economic Letter 2008-37. “What We Do and Don't Know About the Term Premium,” published as Federal Reserve Bank of San
Francisco Economic Letter 2007-21. “Would an Inflation Target Help Anchor U.S. Inflation Expectations?” published as Federal Reserve
Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2006-20. “A Macroeconomic Model of Equities and Real, Nominal, and Defaultable Debt.” “Implications of Labor Market Frictions for Risk Aversion and Risk Premia,” published in
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 12, April 2020, 194–240. “Risk Aversion, Risk Premia, and the Labor Margin with Generalized Recursive Preferences,”
published in Review of Economic Dynamics 28, April 2018, pp. 290-321. “Risk Aversion and the Labor Margin in Dynamic Equilibium Models,” published in The American Economic
Review 102, June 2012, pp. 1663-1691. “The Bond Premium in a DSGE Model with Long-Run Real and Nominal Risks” (with Glenn Rudebusch),
published in American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 4, January 2012, pp. 105-43. “Examining the Bond Premium Puzzle with a DSGE Model,” (with Glenn Rudebusch), published
in Journal of Monetary Economics 55, October 2008, pp. 111-126. “Macroeconomic Implications of Changes in the Term Premium,” (with Glenn Rudebusch and Brian Sack),
published in Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Review 89, July/August 2007, pp. 241-269. “The Bond Yield ‘Conundrum’ from a Macro-Finance Perspective,” (with Glenn Rudebusch and
Tao Wu), published in Monetary and Economic Studies (Special Edition) 24, December 2006, pp. 83-109. “Inflation Targeting and the Anchoring of Inflation Expectations in the Western Hemisphere,” (with
Refet Gürkaynak, Andrew Levin, and Andrew Marder), published in Frederic Mishkin and Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel
(eds.), Series on Central Banking, Analysis and Economic Policies X: Monetary Policy under Inflation
Targeting (Santiago, Chile: Banco Central de Chile), 2007, pp. 415-465. “The Sensitivity of Long-Term Interest Rates to Economic News: Evidence and Implications for Macroeconomic
Models” (with Refet Gürkaynak and Brian Sack), published in The American Economic Review 95,
March 2005, pp. 425-436. “Higher-Order Perturbation Solutions to Dynamic, Discrete-Time Rational Expectations Models” (with
Gary Anderson and Andrew Levin). “A Macroeconomic Model of Equities and Real, Nominal, and Defaultable Debt.” “The Bond Premium in a DSGE Model with Long-Run Real and Nominal Risks” (with Glenn Rudebusch),
published in American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 4, January 2012, pp. 105-43. “Examining the Bond Premium Puzzle with a DSGE Model,” (with Glenn Rudebusch), published
in Journal of Monetary Economics 55, October 2008, pp. 111-126. “Risk Aversion and the Labor Margin in Dynamic Equilibium Models,” published in The American
Economic Review 102, June 2012, pp. 1663-1691. “Risk Aversion, Risk Premia, and the Labor Margin with Generalized Recursive Preferences,”
published in Review of Economic Dynamics 28, April 2018, pp. 290-321. “Implications of Labor Market Frictions for Risk Aversion and Risk Premia,” published in
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 12, April 2020, 194–240. “Macroeconomic Implications of Changes in the Term Premium,” (with Glenn Rudebusch and Brian Sack),
published in Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Review 89, July/August 2007, pp. 241-269. “Monetary Policy Effectiveness in China: Evidence from a FAVAR Model,” (with John Fernald and
Mark Spiegel), published in Journal of International Money and Finance 49, December 2014, pp. 83-103. “Identifying VARs Based on High-Frequency Futures Data” (with Jon Faust and Jonathan Wright),
published in Journal of Monetary Economics 51, September 2004, pp. 1107-1131. “Identifying the Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on Exchange Rates Using High-Frequency Data”
(with Jon Faust, John Rogers, and Jonathan Wright), published in Journal of the European Economic
Association 1, September 2003, pp. 1031-1057. “Do Federal Reserve Policy Surprises Reveal Superior Information About the Economy?” (with Jon Faust
and Jonathan Wright), published in Contributions to Macroeconomics 4, 2004, article 10, Berkeley
Electronic Press. “Optimal Time-Consistent Monetary Policy in the New Keynesian Model with Repeated Simultaneous Play”
(with Gauti Eggertsson), working paper, 2008. “Bayesian Optimal Policy in the Presence of Regime Change and Local Parameter Uncertainty,” working
paper, 2006. “Signal Extraction and Non-Certainty-Equivalence in Optimal Monetary Policy Rules,” published
in Macroeconomic Dynamics 8, January 2004, pp. 27-50. “Optimal Nonlinear Policy: Signal Extraction with a Non-Normal Prior,” published in Journal
of Economic Dynamics and Control 30, February 2006, pp. 185-203. “NAIRU Uncertainty and Nonlinear Policy Rules” (with Laurence Meyer and Volker Wieland), published
in The American Economic Review 91, May 2001, pp. 226-231. “Measuring the Cyclicality of Real Wages: How Important is the Firm's Point of View?” published
in Review of Economics and Statistics 86, February 2004, pp. 362-377. “The Relative Price and Relative Productivity Channels for Aggregate Fluctuations,” published
in Contributions to Macroeconomics 6, 2006, article 10. “Measuring the Cyclicality of Real Wages: How Important is the Firm's Point of View?” published
in Review of Economics and Statistics 86, February 2004, pp. 362-377. “Real Wage Cyclicality in the PSID,” published in Scottish Journal of Political Economy 54,
November 2007, pp. 617-647 (special issue on wage cyclicality). “Out-of-Ecliptic Tests of the Inverse Correlation Between Solar Wind Speed and Coronal Expansion
Factor” (with Neil Sheeley and Yi-Ming Wang), published in Journal of Geophysical Research 96,
August 1, 1991, pp. 13,861-13,868. “MPTP and MPTP Analogs Induced Cell Death in Cultured Rat Hepatocytes Involving the Formation of
Pyridinium Metabolites” (with Yogendra Singh, Edward Sokolski, R. Krishnan Kutty, and Gopal Krishna),
published in Toxicology and Applied Pharmacology 96, 1988, pp. 347-359. |
| Working Papers |
| Published Papers |
| Research Papers by Topic |
| Conference Discussions |
| Citations in Academic Journals |
| Citations in the Popular Press |
| Citations by Policymakers |